Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
02/11/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The surging Buffalo Sabres will try to post their longest winning streak of the season tonight, when they host the Tampa Bay Lightning at First Niagara Center.
Buffalo has notched wins in its last three outings and is one victory shy of matching a four-game winning streak from Nov. 4-11. The Sabres have also recorded a point in six consecutive tests, going 5-0-1 during that stretch.
Neither Buffalo nor the Lightning are currently in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. The Sabres are seeded 11th and are eight points out of a postseason berth, while Tampa is two points in back of Buffalo.
The Sabres were in action on Friday against visiting Dallas and Buffalo was able to pull out a 3-2 shootout win. Nathan Gerbe scored the winner in the fifth round of the shootout, but that was after Derek Roy sent the game to overtime by scoring just 39 seconds before the end of regulation.
Roy and Thomas Vanek both scored in regulation for the Sabres, while Ryan Miller made 24 stops in the win.
"We were able to keep at it tonight and make some plays," said Buffalo head coach Lindy Ruff. "We need to get some more of these wins to get back in the hunt. But that was an important point for us."
Buffalo is 2-0 on a four-game homestand that is set to end Tuesday against New Jersey. The Sabres are 13-9-6 as the hosting team this season.
Sabres forward Cody McCormick left Friday's game in the second period with an upper-body injury and did not return. He is questionable for tonight's tilt.
Although the Lightning have lost three of their last four games, Tampa still has only one regulation loss over its last nine trips to the ice (6-1-2). The Bolts were dealt a second straight setback Thursday against the New York Rangers, dropping a 4-3 overtime decision in the opener of a three-game road trip.
Tampa Bay held a 3-2 lead over the Eastern Conference-leading Rangers after 40 minutes, but Brian Boyle's tally at 10:13 of the third would send the game to overtime. Former Lightning forward Brad Richards then scored 2:37 into the extra session to give the Rangers their extra point.
Steven Stamkos, Vincent Lecavalier and Bruno Gervais had goals for Tampa Bay, while Mathieu Garon gave up four goals on 31 shots. Stamkos has four goals and four assists during a five-game point streak and is leading the NHL with 36 goals.
"We played a pretty solid game (but) we missed some opportunities to get a two-goal lead," said Lecavalier. "It definitely could have gone either way tonight."
Poor road play has been a problem for Tampa all season long. The club is just 8-16-4 as the guest this year compared to a 15-8-2 mark as the host. Improved play away from the Tampa Times Forum will likely be necessary if the Lightning want to make the playoffs, as the Bolts are currently 10 points out of a playoff spot in the East.
Tampa hopes to get a boost from a returning player tonight, as forward Ryan Malone could come back from an upper-body injury that has caused him to sit out the last six games. Malone has 10 goals and 17 assists in 41 games this season and is questionable for tonight.
The Lightning and Sabres faced twice back in October and Tampa Bay won both meetings, notching a 3-0 home win on Oct. 22 and posting a 4-3 regulation victory three days later in Buffalo. Tampa has taken four of six overall in the series and two of three in western New York.
<< Gaels seek redemption in WCC clash with Broncos
Moraga, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams at opposite ends of the West Coast
Conference spectrum meet in Moraga, California tonight, as the Santa Clara
Broncos have come to challenge the 16th-ranked Saint Mary's-CA Gaels.
Santa Clara has had a
<< ACC matchup pits top-25 foes in Chapel Hill
Chapel Hill, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off a deflating last second loss to
rival Duke, the fifth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels seek a quick turnaround,
as the welcome the 19th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers to Chapel Hill this
afternoon for a k
<< Second-ranked Orange host Huskies in Big East affair
Syracuse, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With their sights still set on a Big East
crown, the second-ranked Syracuse Orange welcome the defending national
champion Connecticut Huskies to the Carrier Dome this afternoon.
The Orange won their fourth st
<< SEC action pits Gators against Vols
Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The eighth-ranked Florida Gators return to
Gainesville looking to regain their swagger, as they play host to the
Tennessee Volunteers in SEC action at the O'Connell Center.
Billy Donovan's Gators headed int
Avs, Blues collide in St. Louis >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Avalanche will try to boost their playoff
chances against a tough opponent, as they visit the St. Louis Blues for
tonight's clash at Scottrade Center.
The Avalanche enter today tied with Dallas for the ninth s
Wild try to halt slide vs. Blue Jackets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Wild will try to snap a three-game losing
streak tonight when the lowly Columbus Blue Jackets come to town for a battle
at Xcel Energy Center.
The Wild have gone 0-2-1 in their last three games after winning
Surging Coyotes host skidding Blackhawks >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Phoenix Coyotes will try to extend their season-high
win streak to five games when they host the sliding Chicago Blackhawks in
tonight's clash at Jobing.com Arena.
Phoenix has posted four straight victories for the fir
Canucks roll into Calgary >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Canucks have been piling up the points lately and
Vancouver will try to keep that trend going tonight, when it visits the
Calgary Flames for a Northwest Division clash at the Saddledome.
The Canucks, who lead the divis
El Duque expected to throw Tuesday
PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- New York Mets pitcher Orlando Hernandez, sidelined at spring training because of arthritis in his neck, is expected to resume throwing on Tuesday.
Hernandez received a cortisone shot Thursday after leaving camp and returning to New York to have his neck examined. The 41-year-old right-hander is penciled in as the team's No. 2 starter behind Tom Glavine.
El Duque's health is a major issue for the Mets, who won the NL East in 2007 and came within one victory of the World Series. Their aging and unsettled rotation is a big question mark this year.
MySportsbook.com has the Mets as -110 favorites to repeat as NL East champions odds.
Hernandez went 11-11 with a 4.66 ERA last season, including 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 20 starts after the Mets acquired him from Arizona in late May. But he missed the playoffs because of a torn calf muscle.
New York already is without Pedro Martinez, out until at least midseason following rotator cuff surgery. Among those competing for starting jobs are prospects Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and Jason Vargas, plus veterans Chan Ho Park, Jorge Sosa and Aaron Sele.
Notes: Mets manager Willie Randolph is excited about two new utility players he could have on his bench: Damion Easley and David Newhan. ''Their value is really all over the place,'' Randolph said. Easley can play anywhere in the infield and could be used as an emergency outfielder, though Randolph said he would prefer to keep the veteran in the infield. Newhan, meanwhile, can play second base, third or any outfield position for the Mets. ''I love versatility,'' Randolph said. ''I love guys that can give me options when I need them to step in.''
Additional baseball lines and World Series odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting